Game Changers

Cards whose first play tends to be followed by the game ending within a few turns. The expected rate is a per-turn baseline: a card played on turn 10 is compared with every other card played on turn 10, so late plays do not look like finishers by default.

Games analysed 106
First plays 1936
Baseline: ends ≤ 3 24.4%
Baseline: caster wins ≤ 3 24.4%
Card Games Plays Avg turn Game ends ≤ 3 turns later Caster wins ≤ 3 turns later
Count Rate Expected Lift z Wins Rate Expected Lift
Riverpyre Verge 4 4 4.0 1 25% 8% 3.32x 1.38 0 0% 8% 0.00x
Adventuring Gear 3 3 4.0 1 33% 10% 3.27x 1.43 0 0% 10% 0.00x
Jidoor, Aristocratic Capital // Overture 2 3 4.3 1 33% 10% 3.26x 1.43 0 0% 10% 0.00x
Hearth Elemental // Stoke Genius 2 3 10.3 3 100% 35% 2.83x 2.37 2 67% 35% 1.89x
Ouroboroid 3 3 8.3 2 67% 25% 2.71x 1.73 2 67% 25% 2.71x
Mirkwood Pathmaker 3 3 8.0 2 67% 25% 2.71x 1.70 2 67% 25% 2.71x
Bandit's Talent 3 3 7.3 2 67% 25% 2.69x 1.78 0 0% 25% 0.00x
Deep-Cavern Bat 4 4 5.5 1 25% 9% 2.66x 1.18 1 25% 9% 2.66x
Way of the Cryomancer 3 3 9.3 2 67% 25% 2.62x 1.66 0 0% 25% 0.00x
Beorn's Hospitality 5 5 4.2 1 20% 8% 2.61x 1.06 0 0% 8% 0.00x
Sunbillow Verge 5 5 6.4 2 40% 16% 2.53x 1.58 1 20% 16% 1.26x
Evolving Wilds 5 5 3.8 1 20% 8% 2.38x 0.99 1 20% 8% 2.38x
Voice of Victory 4 4 8.0 2 50% 23% 2.21x 1.36 1 25% 23% 1.11x
Mossborn Hydra 6 6 10.5 3 50% 23% 2.16x 1.64 3 50% 23% 2.16x
Steam Vents 4 4 3.8 1 25% 12% 2.15x 1.01 1 25% 12% 2.15x
The Rise of Sozin // Fire Lord Sozin 3 3 17.7 3 100% 47% 2.15x 1.86 1 33% 47% 0.72x
Bloomvine Regent // Claim Territory 9 9 8.7 5 56% 29% 1.93x 1.80 2 22% 29% 0.77x
Restoration Magic 3 3 10.0 2 67% 35% 1.91x 1.16 0 0% 35% 0.00x
Runescale Stormbrood // Chilling Screech 3 3 10.3 2 67% 35% 1.89x 1.15 1 33% 35% 0.94x
Snooping Page 3 3 12.0 2 67% 37% 1.81x 1.11 1 33% 37% 0.90x
Watery Grave 6 6 8.3 3 50% 28% 1.80x 1.42 2 33% 28% 1.20x
Dragonclaw Strike 3 3 9.7 2 67% 37% 1.80x 1.08 0 0% 37% 0.00x
Sacred Foundry 4 5 4.4 1 20% 11% 1.78x 0.71 0 0% 11% 0.00x
Shock 7 7 7.9 3 43% 24% 1.75x 1.27 1 14% 24% 0.58x
Scoured Barrens 12 12 4.1 2 17% 10% 1.68x 0.84 1 8% 10% 0.84x
Floodfarm Verge 9 10 9.7 4 40% 24% 1.66x 1.35 3 30% 24% 1.24x
Searslicer Goblin 3 3 8.3 1 33% 20% 1.65x 0.58 1 33% 20% 1.65x
Shared Roots 19 21 7.0 7 33% 21% 1.60x 1.58 3 14% 21% 0.69x
Escape Tunnel 6 6 8.8 3 50% 32% 1.56x 1.00 0 0% 32% 0.00x
Badgermole Cub 13 13 6.0 3 23% 15% 1.53x 0.88 1 8% 15% 0.51x
Sleight of Hand 4 4 6.3 1 25% 17% 1.50x 0.45 0 0% 17% 0.00x
Zombify 3 3 11.7 2 67% 45% 1.49x 0.84 2 67% 45% 1.49x
Dispelling Exhale 8 9 7.7 3 33% 23% 1.45x 0.77 1 11% 23% 0.48x
Deathcap Glade 4 4 6.0 1 25% 18% 1.42x 0.48 1 25% 18% 1.42x
Ugin, Eye of the Storms 5 5 14.2 3 60% 43% 1.41x 0.86 2 40% 43% 0.94x
Dreamroot Cascade 7 7 7.3 2 29% 21% 1.39x 0.58 0 0% 21% 0.00x
Banishing Light 4 4 9.8 2 50% 37% 1.36x 0.56 2 50% 37% 1.36x
Into the Flood Maw 2 3 14.0 2 67% 49% 1.36x 0.63 1 33% 49% 0.68x
Quandrix, the Proof 9 9 11.3 5 56% 41% 1.35x 0.91 3 33% 41% 0.81x
Fatehold Chronologist // Peer Review 15 15 11.0 7 47% 35% 1.34x 1.03 3 20% 35% 0.57x
Haliya, Guided by Light 3 3 8.7 1 33% 25% 1.34x 0.36 1 33% 25% 1.34x
Kinbinding 3 3 14.0 2 67% 50% 1.32x 0.58 1 33% 50% 0.66x
Dragonstorm Globe 7 7 10.0 3 43% 32% 1.32x 0.60 1 14% 32% 0.44x
Marang River Regent // Coil and Catch 14 14 12.8 8 57% 43% 1.32x 1.10 5 36% 43% 0.83x
Eusocial Engineering 3 3 7.3 1 33% 25% 1.31x 0.33 1 33% 25% 1.31x
Jace, Reality Sculptor 5 5 19.2 3 60% 47% 1.29x 0.71 1 20% 47% 0.43x
Gleaming Bastion 12 12 12.3 6 50% 41% 1.23x 0.74 4 33% 41% 0.82x
Llanowar Elves 11 11 3.9 1 9% 7% 1.22x 0.24 1 9% 7% 1.22x
Fatehold Charm 14 16 12.1 6 38% 31% 1.21x 0.62 2 12% 31% 0.40x
Magmatic Hellkite 9 9 8.3 3 33% 28% 1.21x 0.39 2 22% 28% 0.80x
Pit of Offerings 9 9 6.6 2 22% 19% 1.20x 0.29 1 11% 19% 0.60x
Multiversal Passage 29 30 5.1 5 17% 14% 1.19x 0.48 1 3% 14% 0.24x
Quick Study 9 9 13.2 4 44% 38% 1.18x 0.46 0 0% 38% 0.00x
Ill-Timed Explosion 5 5 10.2 2 40% 34% 1.18x 0.29 1 20% 34% 0.59x
Forest 50 61 4.1 7 11% 10% 1.17x 0.50 2 3% 10% 0.33x
Tragic Trajectory 3 3 8.0 1 33% 28% 1.17x 0.19 0 0% 28% 0.00x
Maelstrom of the Spirit Dragon 14 14 6.7 3 21% 19% 1.14x 0.28 3 21% 19% 1.14x
Scavenger Regent // Exude Toxin 3 3 8.7 1 33% 30% 1.12x 0.14 1 33% 30% 1.12x
Starting Town 6 6 9.0 2 33% 30% 1.10x 0.17 1 17% 30% 0.55x
Dismal Backwater 11 11 7.9 3 27% 25% 1.09x 0.23 0 0% 25% 0.00x
Lumbering Worldwagon 14 14 8.1 4 29% 26% 1.09x 0.20 2 14% 26% 0.54x
Ureni, the Song Unending 3 3 15.7 2 67% 62% 1.07x 0.17 2 67% 62% 1.07x
Leonin Vanguard 6 6 10.2 2 33% 31% 1.07x 0.13 1 17% 31% 0.53x
Bitter Triumph 10 10 11.2 4 40% 37% 1.07x 0.19 2 20% 37% 0.53x
Cavern of Souls 5 5 14.0 2 40% 38% 1.05x 0.10 1 20% 38% 0.53x
Burst Lightning 17 20 8.6 6 30% 29% 1.05x 0.16 3 15% 29% 0.52x
Duress 6 7 4.7 1 14% 14% 1.04x 0.05 1 14% 14% 1.04x
Strategic Betrayal 3 3 14.7 1 33% 32% 1.03x 0.03 1 33% 32% 1.03x
Sheltered by Ghosts 5 5 10.8 2 40% 39% 1.01x 0.03 2 40% 39% 1.01x
Petrified Hamlet 25 25 9.5 7 28% 28% 1.01x 0.02 3 12% 28% 0.43x
Erode 17 18 10.2 6 33% 33% 1.01x 0.02 1 6% 33% 0.17x
Jace's Machinations 9 9 15.1 4 44% 44% 1.00x 0.00 1 11% 44% 0.25x
Plains 62 79 4.9 10 13% 13% 0.99x -0.02 8 10% 13% 0.80x
Caretaker's Talent 4 4 7.8 1 25% 25% 0.99x -0.01 0 0% 25% 0.00x
Dig Site Inventory 4 4 8.5 1 25% 25% 0.99x -0.02 0 0% 25% 0.00x
Elspeth, Storm Slayer 5 6 15.3 2 33% 34% 0.98x -0.03 1 17% 34% 0.49x
Get Lost 26 33 11.1 11 33% 35% 0.97x -0.16 4 12% 35% 0.35x
Protege's Awakening 5 5 18.4 2 40% 42% 0.96x -0.08 2 40% 42% 0.96x
Authority of the Consuls 8 8 8.6 2 25% 26% 0.95x -0.10 1 12% 26% 0.47x
Temple of Triumph 4 4 7.8 1 25% 26% 0.95x -0.09 1 25% 26% 0.95x
Island 75 86 5.3 10 12% 12% 0.94x -0.25 4 5% 12% 0.37x
Sundown Pass 3 3 13.0 1 33% 36% 0.92x -0.13 1 33% 36% 0.92x
No More Lies 19 19 10.0 6 32% 35% 0.91x -0.32 2 11% 35% 0.30x
Theorist's Sanctum 20 20 7.8 4 20% 22% 0.90x -0.26 4 20% 22% 0.90x
Resonating Lute 3 3 11.0 1 33% 37% 0.90x -0.15 0 0% 37% 0.00x
Shattered Sanctum 3 3 10.0 1 33% 37% 0.89x -0.15 1 33% 37% 0.89x
Requiting Hex 12 13 9.2 3 23% 26% 0.88x -0.30 2 15% 26% 0.58x
Loch Mare 6 6 11.7 2 33% 39% 0.86x -0.29 1 17% 39% 0.43x
Swamp 54 71 4.4 6 8% 10% 0.85x -0.48 1 1% 10% 0.14x
Sarkhan, Dragon Ascendant 12 12 5.2 1 8% 10% 0.83x -0.22 0 0% 10% 0.00x
Restless Reef 10 10 7.5 2 20% 25% 0.82x -0.43 0 0% 25% 0.00x
Boomerang Basics 12 12 10.0 3 25% 31% 0.81x -0.47 2 17% 31% 0.54x
Feed the Swarm 3 3 10.0 1 33% 42% 0.80x -0.29 0 0% 42% 0.00x
Opt 4 5 9.6 1 20% 25% 0.79x -0.34 0 0% 25% 0.00x
Abigale, Poet Laureate // Heroic Stanza 3 3 13.3 1 33% 43% 0.78x -0.32 0 0% 43% 0.00x
Mountain 43 53 4.1 4 8% 10% 0.77x -0.60 3 6% 10% 0.58x
The Theorist, Jace Beleren 22 22 12.2 6 27% 37% 0.74x -0.96 3 14% 37% 0.37x
Shredder's Technique 11 12 11.1 3 25% 37% 0.68x -0.86 3 25% 37% 0.68x
Three Steps Ahead 16 16 12.6 5 31% 47% 0.67x -1.29 0 0% 47% 0.00x
Dalkovan Encampment 6 6 9.5 1 17% 26% 0.65x -0.62 0 0% 26% 0.00x
The Soul Stone 5 5 10.4 1 20% 31% 0.64x -0.73 1 20% 31% 0.64x
Lightning Helix 8 9 10.6 1 11% 17% 0.64x -0.54 1 11% 17% 0.64x
Bottomless Pool // Locker Room 7 7 8.0 1 14% 23% 0.62x -0.57 1 14% 23% 0.62x
Dream Beavers 12 12 4.8 1 8% 13% 0.62x -0.58 0 0% 13% 0.00x
Carnelian Orb of Dragonkind 6 6 9.0 1 17% 27% 0.61x -0.60 1 17% 27% 0.61x
Fear of Isolation 10 10 9.9 2 20% 33% 0.61x -0.92 1 10% 33% 0.31x
Fabled Passage 16 16 7.3 2 12% 21% 0.60x -0.89 2 12% 21% 0.60x
Countersculpt 17 17 10.0 3 18% 30% 0.58x -1.23 2 12% 30% 0.39x
Day of Judgment 15 18 11.9 4 22% 41% 0.54x -1.75 2 11% 41% 0.27x
Demolition Field 6 6 11.2 1 17% 34% 0.49x -1.08 0 0% 34% 0.00x
Spell Pierce 6 6 9.8 1 17% 35% 0.48x -0.97 0 0% 35% 0.00x
Mindseeker Oculus 12 12 13.7 2 17% 35% 0.47x -1.41 2 17% 35% 0.47x
Firdoch Core 7 7 10.9 1 14% 36% 0.39x -1.27 1 14% 36% 0.39x
Super Shredder 12 13 7.5 1 8% 21% 0.36x -1.23 1 8% 21% 0.36x
Tranquil Cove 23 24 4.8 1 4% 12% 0.34x -1.40 1 4% 12% 0.34x
Fountainport 14 15 9.9 1 7% 28% 0.24x -1.99 0 0% 28% 0.00x
Unsummon 12 13 9.4 1 8% 34% 0.23x -2.22 1 8% 34% 0.23x
Hinterland Sanctifier 9 9 3.1 0 0% 5% 0.00x -0.76 0 0% 5% 0.00x
Ba Sing Se 9 9 4.2 0 0% 8% 0.00x -0.92 0 0% 8% 0.00x
Ajani's Pridemate 8 8 5.1 0 0% 12% 0.00x -1.06 0 0% 12% 0.00x
Temple of Enlightenment 8 8 7.6 0 0% 28% 0.00x -2.39 0 0% 28% 0.00x
Sazh's Chocobo 6 6 5.0 0 0% 16% 0.00x -1.49 0 0% 16% 0.00x
Unstoppable Slasher 5 5 7.6 0 0% 26% 0.00x -1.39 0 0% 26% 0.00x
Tablet of Discovery 4 4 7.8 0 0% 23% 0.00x -1.25 0 0% 23% 0.00x
Healer's Hawk 4 4 3.8 0 0% 10% 0.00x -0.69 0 0% 10% 0.00x
Unholy Annex // Ritual Chamber 4 4 9.3 0 0% 28% 0.00x -1.26 0 0% 28% 0.00x
Lecturing Scornmage 4 4 7.8 0 0% 24% 0.00x -1.22 0 0% 24% 0.00x
Shoot the Sheriff 4 4 12.0 0 0% 35% 0.00x -1.60 0 0% 35% 0.00x
Bender's Waterskin 4 4 5.5 0 0% 14% 0.00x -0.80 0 0% 14% 0.00x
Deadly Cover-Up 4 4 16.0 0 0% 32% 0.00x -1.43 0 0% 32% 0.00x
Ride the Shoopuf 4 4 4.5 0 0% 9% 0.00x -0.64 0 0% 9% 0.00x
Ruin-Lurker Bat 3 3 7.0 0 0% 18% 0.00x -0.98 0 0% 18% 0.00x
Helpful Hunter 3 3 7.3 0 0% 21% 0.00x -0.92 0 0% 21% 0.00x
Abandoned Air Temple 3 3 7.0 0 0% 20% 0.00x -0.90 0 0% 20% 0.00x
Cat Collector 3 3 7.3 0 0% 23% 0.00x -1.01 0 0% 23% 0.00x
Bleachbone Verge 3 3 3.0 0 0% 3% 0.00x -0.33 0 0% 3% 0.00x
Quill-Blade Laureate // Twofold Intent 3 3 5.0 0 0% 11% 0.00x -0.62 0 0% 11% 0.00x
Stab 3 3 11.3 0 0% 41% 0.00x -1.44 0 0% 41% 0.00x
Boltwave 3 3 5.7 0 0% 14% 0.00x -0.72 0 0% 14% 0.00x
Fomori Vault 3 3 6.3 0 0% 17% 0.00x -0.81 0 0% 17% 0.00x
Arc Reactor 3 3 9.3 0 0% 32% 0.00x -1.21 0 0% 32% 0.00x
Ancient Vendetta 3 3 8.7 0 0% 30% 0.00x -1.15 0 0% 30% 0.00x
Essence Channeler 3 3 5.3 0 0% 12% 0.00x -0.65 0 0% 12% 0.00x
Castle Doom 3 3 14.0 0 0% 27% 0.00x -1.10 0 0% 27% 0.00x
Hedron Archive 3 3 7.3 0 0% 23% 0.00x -0.96 0 0% 23% 0.00x
Enduring Innocence 3 3 8.3 0 0% 29% 0.00x -1.13 0 0% 29% 0.00x
Ajani, Outland Chaperone 3 3 5.0 0 0% 10% 0.00x -0.57 0 0% 10% 0.00x
Chandra, Torch of Defiance 3 3 13.3 0 0% 50% 0.00x -1.79 0 0% 50% 0.00x
Godless Shrine 3 3 8.7 0 0% 26% 0.00x -1.10 0 0% 26% 0.00x
Bile-Vial Boggart 3 3 5.7 0 0% 12% 0.00x -0.70 0 0% 12% 0.00x
Temple of Deceit 3 3 5.7 0 0% 14% 0.00x -0.72 0 0% 14% 0.00x
Dragon Fodder 3 3 6.0 0 0% 18% 0.00x -0.90 0 0% 18% 0.00x
Correlation, not proof of causation: a card played as the last action before winning will score well. Cards are counted once per game per player (their first play), permanents come from battlefield entries, and instants/sorceries from the graveyard move recorded when they resolve. Increase the minimum plays to reduce noise.